The football fans that love to see points on the scoreboard may be in for a bit of a disappointment this week, as two of the NFL’s best defenses go head-to-head in Super Bowl LIX.
The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs boast defensive units that can stop the run, stop the pass, and get after the quarterback. A lot of it’s because both teams have two of the best defensive coordinators in the game, but the on-field personnel is also among the league’s elite.
For the Eagles, it all starts up front. Their front seven carries that side of the ball and it’s anchored by the defensive line rotation, along with a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in linebacker Zack Baun. The inside rotation of Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Milton Williams, and Moro Ojomo is as good as it gets and that, along with Kansas City’s stout interior offensive line will be must-see TV.
There’s one particular part of the game, however, where the Chiefs are really going to have to dial-in and that’s the screen game. That’s because the Eagles are one of the best when it comes to stopping the screen game, which is a big part of the Chiefs offense.
The Chiefs utilized the screen game at a top-10 rate during the regular season. Per Pro Football Focus, 13.7% of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks were of the screen variety, which was the seventh-highest rate over the course of 18 weeks. Mahomes’ 72 completions were fifth-most among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks with at least 273 dropbacks on the year and his 423 passing yards were ninth-most. Mahomes also converted 24 first downs off screens, which tied Jared Goff for second-most.
So, it’s easy to see why the screen game is important to the Chiefs offense, even if it’s basically been a non-factor in the postseason, so far. The Chiefs will certainly need to get the ball out quickly against the Eagles defense and this is obviously the easiest way to do so.
But it’s going to be a lot easier said than done and Andy Reid and Co. are well aware of that heading into the game.”They’re fast, so they recover quickly,” Reid told reporters on Tuesday. “The idea in screen game is to try to get the guys to rush up the field, thinking it’s pass, and then dump it down with some blockers out there in front, to kind of mix the run game [and] pass game all in one play. But these guys, they don’t get caught up too much on the screen game. They’re able to recover quickly.”
Per Sports Info Solutions, opposing offenses generated -0.22 EPA/attempt on screen passes against the Eagles, along with a measly success rate of 34.0%. Both numbers were third-worst out of all 32 teams in 2024.
With the athleticism and size of Carter and Davis, the speed and quickness of Williams, Ojomo and Baun, and then Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith Jr. on the outside at defensive end – yea, the Eagles defense should be able to have the ability to get upfield, but get back on track and recover effectively enough to make a play on the ball.
The biggest key in all this, however, is staying disciplined and making sure they aren’t being too aggressive. If they can do that, there’s certainly a world where the Eagles defense contains Mahomes and the Chiefs offense.
“I think just how talented they are. I mean, they’re talented at all three levels: d-line, linebackers and the secondary,” Mahomes said when asked about the Eagles defense on Tuesday. “They know how to play well together. I mean, that’s what makes Vic Fangio defenses so great is that everybody has a part and they have to do their job in order for everybody to have success, and that’s what they do. [If] they’re asked to play man, they play man well. If they play zone, they make sure to be in the right spots at the right time. So it’ll be a great challenge.
“You gotta be patient and when those opportunities come, you gotta go out there and execute on them, because there’s [only] gonna be a few of them in the game.”
It’s going to be hard running the ball against the Eagles defense, anyway, and as Reid mentioned, the screen game is a way to move the ball on the ground through the air. If the Eagles can shut down both the run game and the screen game, it’ll make the Chiefs offense one-dimensional to the point where the front seven can really make life hard for Mahomes.
And if that happens, well, than any outcome favoring the Eagles is possible and there’s a good chance it plays a key role in the franchise’s second Super Bowl.